Predicting next integer value in a time series

jetonjeton Member Posts: 3 Contributor I
edited September 2019 in Help
Hi!
I'm from Argentina and new to RapidMiner so I apologize in advance for my poor English.

I have a time series in an Excel that looks like this...

Date              Number
May-02        4
May-03        9
May-04        1
May-05        7
May-06        7

and so on... Numbers (they are integers from 0 to 9) can repeat and they are "random". The last record is, for example, Sep-18 is 2. Now... I know that Sep-19 is 7 but I can't find the right model and learner to achieve that.

Here are the steps:

- Read Excel
- Set Role (I labelled the date)
- Windowing (encode series by example, horizon 1, window size 1, step size 1, create single attributes, create label (for Number))
- Sliding Window Validation: Training (learner is SVM Evo, radial) and Testing (Apply Model, Forecasting Performance horizon 1)

Now when I make a copy of the first 3 of the nodes and create an Apply Model node in order to "compare" (with Windowing in horizon 0) the original date with the prediction label, the last record is 0!!!! And I kwow is 3! The rest of the "predictions" are OK.

Is there a simple way to make a prediction of the next value of an integer-valued time series based on the past values?
Hope I've been clear enough.
I really need your help guys!

Thank you very much!

Leo

P.S.: I tried to "copy" the way of modeling from this video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmGIGEJMmN8
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Answers

  • jetonjeton Member Posts: 3 Contributor I
    Hi, goog morning!
    I don't know what to do, I'm stuck.

    The spreadsheet looks like this

    Date1        Number1
    Date2        Number2
    ...
    DateN        Number N

    I think I'm making a mistake with the Windowing because it is predicting very well with the "past days" but for the last day it ALWAYS displays 0 in any case.
    Must I add one mor row to put Date N + 1 in order to get Number N+1?
  • wpier002wpier002 Member Posts: 2 Contributor I

    Can you please explain how to perform this same process in Rapidminer 7.2.002?  When I'm searching for the window operator nothing is coming up.  Thank you.


    @jeton wrote:
    Hi!
    I'm from Argentina and new to RapidMiner so I apologize in advance for my poor English.

    I have a time series in an Excel that looks like this...

    Date              Number
    May-02        4
    May-03        9
    May-04        1
    May-05        7
    May-06        7

    and so on... Numbers (they are integers from 0 to 9) can repeat and they are "random". The last record is, for example, Sep-18 is 2. Now... I know that Sep-19 is 7 but I can't find the right model and learner to achieve that.

    Here are the steps:

    - Read Excel
    - Set Role (I labelled the date)
    - Windowing (encode series by example, horizon 1, window size 1, step size 1, create single attributes, create label (for Number))
    - Sliding Window Validation: Training (learner is SVM Evo, radial) and Testing (Apply Model, Forecasting Performance horizon 1)

    Now when I make a copy of the first 3 of the nodes and create an Apply Model node in order to "compare" (with Windowing in horizon 0) the original date with the prediction label, the last record is 0!!!! And I kwow is 3! The rest of the "predictions" are OK.

    Is there a simple way to make a prediction of the next value of an integer-valued time series based on the past values?
    Hope I've been clear enough.
    I really need your help guys!

    Thank you very much!

    Leo

    P.S.: I tried to "copy" the way of modeling from this video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmGIGEJMmN8

     

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