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# Predicting next integer value in a time series

Hi!

I'm from Argentina and new to RapidMiner so I apologize in advance for my poor English.

I have a time series in an Excel that looks like this...

Date Number

May-02 4

May-03 9

May-04 1

May-05 7

May-06 7

and so on... Numbers (they are integers from 0 to 9) can repeat and they are "random". The last record is, for example, Sep-18 is 2. Now... I know that Sep-19 is 7 but I can't find the right model and learner to achieve that.

Here are the steps:

- Read Excel

- Set Role (I labelled the date)

- Windowing (encode series by example, horizon 1, window size 1, step size 1, create single attributes, create label (for Number))

- Sliding Window Validation: Training (learner is SVM Evo, radial) and Testing (Apply Model, Forecasting Performance horizon 1)

Now when I make a copy of the first 3 of the nodes and create an Apply Model node in order to "compare" (with Windowing in horizon 0) the original date with the prediction label, the last record is 0!!!! And I kwow is 3! The rest of the "predictions" are OK.

Is there a simple way to make a prediction of the next value of an integer-valued time series based on the past values?

Hope I've been clear enough.

I really need your help guys!

Thank you very much!

Leo

P.S.: I tried to "copy" the way of modeling from this video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmGIGEJMmN8

I'm from Argentina and new to RapidMiner so I apologize in advance for my poor English.

I have a time series in an Excel that looks like this...

Date Number

May-02 4

May-03 9

May-04 1

May-05 7

May-06 7

and so on... Numbers (they are integers from 0 to 9) can repeat and they are "random". The last record is, for example, Sep-18 is 2. Now... I know that Sep-19 is 7 but I can't find the right model and learner to achieve that.

Here are the steps:

- Read Excel

- Set Role (I labelled the date)

- Windowing (encode series by example, horizon 1, window size 1, step size 1, create single attributes, create label (for Number))

- Sliding Window Validation: Training (learner is SVM Evo, radial) and Testing (Apply Model, Forecasting Performance horizon 1)

Now when I make a copy of the first 3 of the nodes and create an Apply Model node in order to "compare" (with Windowing in horizon 0) the original date with the prediction label, the last record is 0!!!! And I kwow is 3! The rest of the "predictions" are OK.

Is there a simple way to make a prediction of the next value of an integer-valued time series based on the past values?

Hope I've been clear enough.

I really need your help guys!

Thank you very much!

Leo

P.S.: I tried to "copy" the way of modeling from this video... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmGIGEJMmN8

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## Answers

3Contributor II don't know what to do, I'm stuck.

The spreadsheet looks like this

Date1 Number1

Date2 Number2

...

DateN Number N

I think I'm making a mistake with the Windowing because it is predicting very well with the "past days" but for the last day it ALWAYS displays 0 in any case.

Must I add one mor row to put Date N + 1 in order to get Number N+1?

2Contributor ICan you please explain how to perform this same process in Rapidminer 7.2.002? When I'm searching for the window operator nothing is coming up. Thank you.