How can I show error bars for a time series forecast?
Hello,
How can I show error bars when visualizing a time series forecast? I can easily plot the forecast, but I do not know how to make error bars (e.g., 95% confidence interval estimates) visible. What I mean is displaying something like this (not from RapidMiner):
Regards,
Chitu
0
Best Answer

yyhuang Administrator, Employee, RapidMiner Certified Analyst, RapidMiner Certified Expert, Member Posts: 355 RM Data ScientistUnfortunately we do not have such thing available now in results visualization. You may want to manually create the boundary for upper and lower limit first in the process and then plot the prediction upper& lower limit with your forecasting.0
Answers
have a look at the first Tutorial Process of the Forecast Validation operator.
This gives you the label and the prediction which you can easily plot.
Greetings,
Jonas
i can't see the snipboard pictures, can you try to use the community image upload instead?
Greetings,
Jonas
y±1.96* σ,
where σ^2 is the estimated variance of the residuals. For the forecasted values, you can generate the prediction interval based on the formula above.
Some other exercise in R could be helpful for understand the prediction interval
https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/323071/confidenceintervalsformeandifferencebetweenactualsandforecast?rq=1
I think that an excellent review by Chris Chatfield regarding Prediction Intervals will answer most of your questions.