RapidMiner

Dengue Forecasting with Neural Network

Contributor II binsetyawan
Contributor II

Dengue Forecasting with Neural Network

Hello everyone,

first im sorry if im bad at english

 

i have dataset of dengue fever patient every hospital in my city from 2009 to 2014 and i want to forecast the data with neural network for next 2015.

To forecast a hospital, I add other data such as temperature, rainfall, humidity and will apply to other hospitals.

below is model that i build to forecast 1 hospital

model for 1 hospital.PNG

and here is the forecasting result

result.PNG

 

There are some questions I want to ask

1. How to get a forecast the next year? because the prediction result is the same month with actual data

2. Model that i build is just for 1 hospital, there are 20 hospital next, how to simplify the model? should i try loop or script?

 

Many thanks in advance,
Bintang

16 REPLIES
RM Certified Expert
RM Certified Expert

Re: Dengue Forecasting with Neural Network

A few things. Since this is time series, I would use the Sliding Window Validation and Windowing operators included in the Series Extension. Then search the Community for some forecasting processes using these operators. This one comes to mind: http://community.rapidminer.com/t5/RapidMiner-Studio-Forum/Financial-Time-Series-Prediction/m-p/3345...

Contributor II binsetyawan
Contributor II

Re: Dengue Forecasting with Neural Network

thank you, i'll try to use windowing and slding window validation from the reference

and got any idea to simplify the model? it change 1 attributte with other 1 attributte for next 20

should i try script or can be solved with looping?

RM Certified Expert
RM Certified Expert

Re: Dengue Forecasting with Neural Network

Ok, so if I understand it you want to model the Dengue forecast for each hospital, right?  If yes, that you can use a combination of macros and loops to Filter based on the hospital and then run each Validation on that.

 

Something like this sample

 

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><process version="7.5.000">
  <context>
    <input/>
    <output/>
    <macros/>
  </context>
  <operator activated="true" class="process" compatibility="7.5.000" expanded="true" name="Process">
    <process expanded="true">
      <operator activated="true" class="retrieve" compatibility="7.5.000" expanded="true" height="68" name="Retrieve Deals" width="90" x="45" y="34">
        <parameter key="repository_entry" value="//Samples/data/Deals"/>
      </operator>
      <operator activated="true" class="filter_example_range" compatibility="7.5.000" expanded="true" height="82" name="Filter Example Range" width="90" x="179" y="34">
        <parameter key="first_example" value="1"/>
        <parameter key="last_example" value="10"/>
      </operator>
      <operator activated="true" class="extract_macro" compatibility="7.5.000" expanded="true" height="68" name="Extract Macro" width="90" x="313" y="34">
        <parameter key="macro" value="num"/>
        <parameter key="attribute_name" value="Payment Method"/>
        <list key="additional_macros"/>
      </operator>
      <operator activated="true" class="concurrency:loop" compatibility="7.5.000" expanded="true" height="82" name="Loop" width="90" x="447" y="34">
        <parameter key="number_of_iterations" value="%{num}"/>
        <process expanded="true">
          <operator activated="true" class="extract_macro" compatibility="7.5.000" expanded="true" height="68" name="Extract Macro (2)" width="90" x="112" y="34">
            <parameter key="macro" value="filter"/>
            <parameter key="macro_type" value="data_value"/>
            <parameter key="attribute_name" value="Payment Method"/>
            <parameter key="example_index" value="%{iteration}"/>
            <list key="additional_macros"/>
          </operator>
          <operator activated="true" class="filter_examples" compatibility="7.5.000" expanded="true" height="103" name="Filter Examples" width="90" x="246" y="34">
            <list key="filters_list">
              <parameter key="filters_entry_key" value="Payment Method.equals.%{filter}"/>
            </list>
          </operator>
          <connect from_port="input 1" to_op="Extract Macro (2)" to_port="example set"/>
          <connect from_op="Extract Macro (2)" from_port="example set" to_op="Filter Examples" to_port="example set input"/>
          <connect from_op="Filter Examples" from_port="example set output" to_port="output 1"/>
          <portSpacing port="source_input 1" spacing="0"/>
          <portSpacing port="source_input 2" spacing="0"/>
          <portSpacing port="sink_output 1" spacing="0"/>
          <portSpacing port="sink_output 2" spacing="0"/>
        </process>
      </operator>
      <connect from_op="Retrieve Deals" from_port="output" to_op="Filter Example Range" to_port="example set input"/>
      <connect from_op="Filter Example Range" from_port="example set output" to_op="Extract Macro" to_port="example set"/>
      <connect from_op="Extract Macro" from_port="example set" to_op="Loop" to_port="input 1"/>
      <connect from_op="Loop" from_port="output 1" to_port="result 1"/>
      <portSpacing port="source_input 1" spacing="0"/>
      <portSpacing port="sink_result 1" spacing="0"/>
      <portSpacing port="sink_result 2" spacing="0"/>
    </process>
  </operator>
</process>
Contributor II binsetyawan
Contributor II

Re: Dengue Forecasting with Neural Network

is there another reference for me to learn macro and loop like that? its a bit hard to understand from that example

RM Certified Expert
RM Certified Expert

Re: Dengue Forecasting with Neural Network

References? But of course. Have a look at these results. The top is where you want to start: http://community.rapidminer.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=macro

Learner III mattari_26
Learner III

Re: Heart Disease Prediction with very good accuracy using Rapid Miner

Dear Manager, Im PhD student working on classification of Cardio-vascular data using ensemble based data minng model. For the above purpose, I have made neural network model using rapid miner giving accuracy of 81%. Kindly guide me about, how to improve the accuracy of above model for acceptable predictive modelling. The sample data is enclosed for reference.

 

Mustafa Jan

NUST, PNEC

Contributor II binsetyawan
Contributor II

Re: Heart Disease Prediction with very good accuracy using Rapid Miner

hello sir, i dont know if this helps you but my suggestion is for validation to your training data, you can use optimize parameter (grid) operator to help you get the best parameter for your neural network operator and will help you to imrove the accuracy, here is tutorial about optimize parameter optimize parameter operator

Learner III mattari_26
Learner III

Re: Heart Disease Prediction with very good accuracy using Rapid Miner

Dear Fellow, I have tried parameter optimizer while using neural network classifier , its a good operator. But I dont know the reasons, that after ruinning the model the system keeps processing for so long and no results come out. 

Contributor II binsetyawan
Contributor II

Re: Heart Disease Prediction with very good accuracy using Rapid Miner

have you try to connect port par with purple color from optimize parameter operator to the res port so the result will come out?