Process Help: Correlation and Regression

TiWeblyTiWebly Member Posts: 1 Newbie

Hello!

I have the following data (74 observations) and am trying to identify the process and operators to conduct an exploratory analysis (Correlation and Regression) of the relationship between the president's political party affiliation and this consumer good's Producer Price Index value which is averaged over each year annually. I also have the PPI values quarterly and monthly for the same years which will be assessed using the same process in hopes of a more statically significant value.

- Additionally, how to identify which President had the largest change+/- in PPI over their Term and which year (assuming I'm using monthly values for PPI)?

Years (after inauguration) President Party PPI Observation Date PPI_YrAvg
1947 Harry S. Truman Democrat 1/1/1947 22.5
1948 Harry S. Truman Democrat 1/1/1948 25.5
1949 Harry S. Truman Democrat 1/1/1949 27.4
1950 Harry S. Truman Democrat 1/1/1950 28.4
1951 Harry S. Truman Democrat 1/1/1951 33.2
1952 Harry S. Truman Democrat 1/1/1952 32.1
1953 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1/1/1953 31.9
1954 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1/1/1954 31.9
1955 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1/1/1955 33.6
1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1/1/1956 35.7
1957 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1/1/1957 36.5
1958 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1/1/1958 36.5
1959 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1/1/1959 35.7
1960 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican 1/1/1960 35.5
1961 John F. Kennedy Democrat 1/1/1961 37.5
1962 John F. Kennedy Democrat 1/1/1962 37.5
1963 Lyndon B. Johnson Democrat 1/1/1963 37.6
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson Democrat 1/1/1964 37.9
1965 Lyndon B. Johnson Democrat 1/1/1965 39.5
1966 Lyndon B. Johnson Democrat 1/1/1966 39.5
1967 Lyndon B. Johnson Democrat 1/1/1967 39.4
1968 Lyndon B. Johnson Democrat 1/1/1968 40.9
1969 Richard M. Nixon Republican 1/1/1969 42.2
1970 Richard M. Nixon Republican 1/1/1970 46.2
1971 Richard M. Nixon Republican 1/1/1971 47.4
1972 Richard M. Nixon Republican 1/1/1972 48.4
1973 Richard M. Nixon Republican 1/1/1973 49.2
1974 Gerald Ford Republican 1/1/1974 53.2
1975 Gerald Ford Republican 1/1/1975 59.7
1976 Gerald Ford Republican 1/1/1976 62.3
1977 Jimmy Carter Democrat 1/1/1977 67.5
1978 Jimmy Carter Democrat 1/1/1978 72.8
1979 Jimmy Carter Democrat 1/1/1979 80.5
1980 Jimmy Carter Democrat 1/1/1980 88.7
1981 Ronald Reagan Republican 1/1/1981 96.9
1982 Ronald Reagan Republican 1/1/1982 100.0
1983 Ronald Reagan Republican 1/1/1983 110.0
1984 Ronald Reagan Republican 1/1/1984 115.9
1985 Ronald Reagan Republican 1/1/1985 123.5
1986 Ronald Reagan Republican 1/1/1986 126.3
1987 Ronald Reagan Republican 1/1/1987 125.0
1988 Ronald Reagan Republican 1/1/1988 130.2
1989 George Bush Republican 1/1/1989 136.4
1990 George Bush Republican 1/1/1990 133.4
1991 George Bush Republican 1/1/1991 138.9
1992 George Bush Republican 1/1/1992 138.3
1993 Bill Clinton Democrat 1/1/1993 139.5
1994 Bill Clinton Democrat 1/1/1994 140.3
1995 Bill Clinton Democrat 1/1/1995 144.3
1996 Bill Clinton Democrat 1/1/1996 143.1
1997 Bill Clinton Democrat 1/1/1997 142.8
1998 Bill Clinton Democrat 1/1/1998 144.1
1999 Bill Clinton Democrat 1/1/1999 144.2
2000 Bill Clinton Democrat 1/1/2000 144.9
2001 George W. Bush Republican 1/1/2001 143.9
2002 George W. Bush Republican 1/1/2002 144.3
2003 George W. Bush Republican 1/1/2003 145.2
2004 George W. Bush Republican 1/1/2004 148.9
2005 George W. Bush Republican 1/1/2005 162.5
2006 George W. Bush Republican 1/1/2006 171.5
2007 George W. Bush Republican 1/1/2007 198.7
2008 George W. Bush Republican 1/1/2008 250.3
2009 Barack Obama Democrat 1/1/2009 248.9
2010 Barack Obama Democrat 1/1/2010 261.6
2011 Barack Obama Democrat 1/1/2011 297.9
2012 Barack Obama Democrat 1/1/2012 304.5
2013 Barack Obama Democrat 1/1/2013 315.4
2014 Barack Obama Democrat 1/1/2014 323.4
2015 Barack Obama Democrat 1/1/2015 338.6
2016 Barack Obama Democrat 1/1/2016 345.5
2017 Donald Trump Republican 1/1/2017 341.6
2018 Donald Trump Republican 1/1/2018 358.3
2019 Donald Trump Republican 1/1/2019 362.2
2020 Donald Trump Republican 1/1/2020 369.9


This is as far as I've got without guidance.

Please be kind, I'm just starting to explore rapidminer in school and I'd really appreciate any help or advice, Thanks! :)

Answers

  • BalazsBaranyBalazsBarany Administrator, Moderator, Employee, RapidMiner Certified Analyst, RapidMiner Certified Expert Posts: 788 Unicorn
    Hi!

    I would first calculate the yearly change of PPI. I assume the formula for that would be PPI_YrAvg / previous(PPI_YrAvg) - 1. You can do this in Excel or in RapidMiner with Differentiate or Lag and Generate Attributes. 
    Here's an introduction to Generate Attributes: https://academy.rapidminer.com/learn/video/generate-attributes
    And two videos for time series calculations: https://academy.rapidminer.com/catalog?query=differentiate

    When you have the new column YearlyChange, you can easily use Aggregate to group by party and calculate the average, min and max yearly change.

    Regards,
    Balázs

    lionelderkrikor
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