How to do prescriptive analysis in rapidminer

zainzain Member Posts: 9 Learner I
edited December 2018 in Help
After doing predictive analysis in rapidminer now I know which customers will churn or not. Now for the customers who are going to churn, I want to know how I can suggest the best course of actions for the company to stop the churns of the customers? How can this be done in rapid miner?
Thank you

Best Answer

Answers

  • mschmitzmschmitz Administrator, Moderator, Employee, RapidMiner Certified Analyst, RapidMiner Certified Expert, University Professor Posts: 2,188  RM Data Scientist
    Hi @zain ,
    did you have a look at the Prescriptive Analytics operator?
    BR,
    MArtin
    - Head of Data Science Services at RapidMiner -
    Dortmund, Germany
    rfuentealbasgenzer
  • Telcontar120Telcontar120 Moderator, RapidMiner Certified Analyst, RapidMiner Certified Expert, Member Posts: 1,270   Unicorn
    Prescriptive Analytics is useful for understanding what inputs maximize your desired output (perhaps given a subset of defined inputs).
    However, that might not be the same as your question, which is what actions should be taken.  Do you have some set of possible actions that are quantified in terms of their outcomes? 
    Brian T.
    Lindon Ventures 
    Data Science Consulting from Certified RapidMiner Experts
    rfuentealbasgenzer
  • zainzain Member Posts: 9 Learner I
    @M_Martin Thank you for such a detailed answer In nutshell you are saying this cannot be done in rapid miner...means it cannot tell.......decrease your package prices etc.......?
  • rfuentealbarfuentealba Moderator, RapidMiner Certified Analyst, Member, University Professor Posts: 440   Unicorn
    @zain in simple:

    Yes it can. Use "Explain Predictions" or "Prescriptive Analysis".

    What @M_Martin is saying is that you should combine this technique with other ones (that involve other people in the decision, not something RapidMiner can do alone) to decide how valuable are the churning customers and if it's worth retaining them, e.g. a churning customer worth 2000 USD each month is more valuable than a churning customer worth 50 USD every two months, so you shouldn't spend 200 USD monthly on keeping the latter but you do want to keep the former. Segmenting your customers is key and provides better revenue.

    All the best,

    Rodrigo.
    mschmitzMaerkli
  • M_MartinM_Martin RapidMiner Certified Analyst, Member Posts: 117   Unicorn
    Hi again @zain - As per Rodrigo's and my posts above, you can use "Explain Predictions".  "Prescriptive Analysis" (read the documentation carefully as "Prescriptive Analysis" works differently than "Explain Predictions") could also help you communicate your model findings to your business colleagues . 
    You could also try looking at your data using a Paralell Chart or an Andrews Curve (two of RapidMiner's available chart types).  If you colour the chart data by your "churn / no churn" data field,. this might help you see which data fields seem to indicate a "churn" or a "no churn".  What i was trying to say in my first post is that it can also be helpful to segment your customers and talk to your colleagues in order to determine priorities as to which types of customers have the highest priority for action, because the real value of your model will not only be what it predicts - your model will be really considered by be valuable if your organisation is able to use the model outputs to really make a difference.  Good luck and best wishes, Michel Martin
    mschmitz
  • zainzain Member Posts: 9 Learner I
    @M_Martin how can I use those charts you mentioned parallell and andrew? because when I search them in operators they are not there
  • M_MartinM_Martin RapidMiner Certified Analyst, Member Posts: 117   Unicorn
    Hi @zain:  Parallel Charts and Andrews Curves are not operators, they're chart types - please see the attached screen shot - you'll see what I mean - Parallel Charts and Andrews Curves are among the available chart types.  RapidMiner can also be used to design more advanced charts - there's a manual in the documentation area of the web site. Best wishes, Michael Martin
  • zainzain Member Posts: 9 Learner I
    edited November 2018
    @M_Martin I appreciate you helping me and I am learning alot...........do you know of any tutorial on prescriptive analytics operator other than its description in the documentation?
  • M_MartinM_Martin RapidMiner Certified Analyst, Member Posts: 117   Unicorn
    Hi @zain: I'm not aware of any specific tutorials about the Prescriptive Analytics operator over and above the tutorial example that would be included in the Help System.  Bear in mind that the Prescriptive Analytics operator works very differently than the Explain Predictions operator as you would see if you were to use RapidMiner Auto Model on a sample data set that comes with RapidMiner or your own data as Auto Model processes commonly include both operators (Prescriptive Analytics contributes to the what the Model Simulator operator outputs - so it would be helpful to also check out the documentation of the Model Simulator operator).  
    Explain Predictions looks at every row in your example set and tries to measure the importance of each attribute in arriving at the predicted outcome, based on the Algorithm type and the attributes in your data.  These "Importance" measures can be captured using the Imp output port.  Depending on the algorithm type and data fields, these "importance" values will vary with the same data set.
    Prescriptive Analytics generates what it thinks would be "prototypical values" (and outputs these values in a single row of data) for each attribute in your data set based on input from you.  For example: say your predicting customer churn.  If you wanted to see the values for each field (i.e. attribute) in your data that when taken together would result in a 90% probability of customers churning (the 90% confidence for churn is the input from you), the Prescriptive Analytics operator would generate those values.  You could then compare the "prototypical values" for each attribute or combinations of attributes with values for those attributes in your data.   Hope this helps, and best wishes, Michael Martin
  • M_MartinM_Martin RapidMiner Certified Analyst, Member Posts: 117   Unicorn
    Hi @zain:  I should have also mentioned the Deviation chart type - which can be a little easier to interpret than a Parallel Chart.  See https://community.rapidminer.com/discussion/32244/deviation-chart-and-its-interpretation/p1 - which explains how to interpret a Deviation Chart.  Best wishes, Michael Martin
  • zainzain Member Posts: 9 Learner I
    @M_Martin I used the model simulator operator and then I used the optimization button on the bottom left...the optimization button documentation says it will prescribe or indicate which best course of action is suitable to stop churning. I am using telco customer churn data and I optimized it for "No" class as I want action which stops churning and below is the output I got.
    But I am facing difficulties in understanding the outcome. Can you guide me here as what is beign prescribed to me here what actions I shall take?
    Thank you
  • Telcontar120Telcontar120 Moderator, RapidMiner Certified Analyst, RapidMiner Certified Expert, Member Posts: 1,270   Unicorn
    In this case, it suggests that the best thing you can do in the example provided is to reduce the total charges (this is the factor that is showing a large contribution contradicting the "No Churn" outcome.
    As I had mentioned before, there is a difference between understanding why a certain prediction is occurring and in evaluating the possible actions that could be taken.  They of course may be related, but they are not identical.  Do you have a set of possible retention actions that could be taken?  Can you quantify those outcomes?  If so you might be able to build a kind of action tree based on what the relevant prediction factors are.
    Brian T.
    Lindon Ventures 
    Data Science Consulting from Certified RapidMiner Experts
  • zainzain Member Posts: 9 Learner I
    @Telcontar120 it means this is not only the job of rapidminer to prescribe best course of action hence it has given a hint on the area which should be improved to stop churn and the company team should sit together with me on how we can reduce the charges.
    I mean no software can tell you need to give this package to customers?
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